Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim from the Department of State recently shared some predictions and projections for the various immigrant preference categories at the beginning of the new government fiscal year. Please refer to our previous blogs on this topic for an overview of how the monthly Visa Bulletin works.
Family-Based Projections: Charlie indicated that he was watching demand in the F-4 sibling category for both China and India due to demand fluctuations. These fluctuations certainly eventuated. For November 2016, the final action date for F-4 China is August 3, 2001 (compared to May 1, 2003 in October) and for India, it is February 15, 2003 (compared to December 1, 2002 this month).
Employment-Based Projections: Charlie predicted that EB-1 China, EB-1 India, and EB-1 Worldwide would remain current in November and for the foreseeable future. The November 2016 visa bulletin confirms this to be the case. Importantly, retrogression in the EB-1 category is not expected for the first half of the fiscal year. Charlie will continue to monitor demand and warn if there might be a possibility of retrogression later in the fiscal year.
Charlie further indicated that EB-2 Worldwide would remain current in November, which is the case, and that retrogression is not expected in the foreseeable future. Charlie also anticipated that EB-2 India would advance nine months in November. It will progress from the October final action date of January 15, 2007 to November 1, 2007. This forward movement is apparently the result of lower demand than expected. The good news is that EB-2 India can expect only forward movement in this category for the foreseeable future. Charlie’s goal is to recover to the November 2008 date that was reached last spring.
At the same time, EB-2 China will advance from a final action date of February 15, 2012 in October to July 15, 2012 in November. Charlie indicated that EB-2 China is likely to recover further over the following months. EB-3 China will also advance three months to April 15, 2013 in November from an October final action date of January 22, 2013.
Finally, due to lower demand, the EB-3 Philippines final action date moved more quickly than Charlie expected. From a final action date of December 1, 2010 in October, it will progress to April 1, 2011 in November. Charlie was hopeful of continuing to advance this final action date by several months at a time.
We continually monitor preference category movements and advise current clients of any impact on their immigration matters.