Charlie Oppenheim from the Department of State recently shared the latest update on the availability of employment-based visas. Charlie is able to make visa availability projections based on the demand for immigrant visas. As noted by Charlie, demand refers to individuals seeking immigrant visas, whether it be by filing their case or by changing preference categories. USCIS makes its final adjudication on a case based on this demand. Please refer to our blog Surprise! The July Visa bulletin for a summary of how visa numbers are allocated.
While Charlie previously indicated that the First Employment-Based category (EB-1) was expected to remain current through September, meaning that green card visa numbers would remain immediately available for nationals of all countries, the latest numbers have indicated that EB-1 visas for India and China will become limited as soon as this summer. Both EB-1 India and China have already surpassed their per country limits of 2,800 visas, which means that a Final Action Date will likely be imposed this summer. This would restrict the availability of visas for Chinese and Indian nationals for the EB-1 category to petitions submitted prior to that date.
Demand for the Second Employment-Based category (EB-2) visas for China has remained high, so additional visa numbers for this preference category will be limited, while the final action date for the Third Employment-Based (EB-3) preference category is 19 months ahead of EB-2 China. It is likely that the gap between these two categories will continue to grow unless demand for EB-3 increases significantly. It is unclear how long this phenomenon will continue before the Final Action Dates move closer together again.
EB-2 India: As reflected in the April visa bulletin, EB-2 India visa numbers advanced only three weeks from March to April. Movement in this category could continue to slow or stop if EB-3 upgrades increase. Meanwhile, EB-3 worldwide categories continue to advance based on relatively low demand. However, it is not expected that EB-3 will become current in the near future.
Finally, Family Based Preference Categories have also advanced in April. The FB-1 category, unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. Citizens, advanced more than four months, with the exception of Mexico and the Philippines. FB-1, FB-2, and FB-3 categories are all expected to continue to advance at the same pace, while FB-4, brothers and sisters of U.S. Citizens, is not expected to advance again until July. Because these projections are based on the best information Charlie has at the time, we will continue to monitor the visa bulletin and each client’s case so that we can apply for a green card as soon as a visa number becomes available.